Chapter by Matthew Crump
Correlation does not equal causation
— Every Statistics and Research Methods Instructor Ever
In the last chapter we had some data. It was too much too look at and it didn’t make sense. So, we talked about how to look at the data visually using plots and histograms, and we talked about how to summarize lots of numbers so we could determine their central tendencies (sameness) and variability (differentness). And, all was well with the world.
Let’s not forget the big reason why we learned about descriptive statistics. The big reason is that we are interested in getting answers to questions using data.
If you are looking for a big theme to think about while you take this course, the theme is: how do we ask and answer questions using data?
For every section in this book, you should be connecting your inner monologue to this question, and asking yourself: How does what I am learning about help me answer questions with data? Advance warning: we know it is easy to forget this stuff when we dive into the details, and we will try to throw you a rope to help you out along the way…remember, we’re trying to answer questions with data.
We started Chapter two with some fake data on human happiness, remember? We imagined that we asked a bunch of people to tell us how happy they were, then we looked at the numbers they gave us. Let’s continue with this imaginary thought experiment.
What do you get when you ask people to use a number to describe how happy they are? A bunch of numbers. What kind of questions can you ask about those numbers? Well, you can look at the numbers and estimate their general properties as we already did. We would expect those numbers tell us some things we already know. There are different people, and different people are different amounts of happy. You’ve probably met some of those of really happy people, and really unhappy people, and you yourself probably have some amount of happiness. “Great, thanks Captain Obvious”.
Before moving on, you should also be skeptical of what the numbers might mean. For example, if you force people to give a number between 0-100 to rate their happiness, does this number truly reflect how happy that person is? Can a person know how happy they are? Does the question format bias how they give their answer? Is happiness even a real thing? These are all good questions about the validity of the construct (happiness itself) and the measure (numbers) you are using to quantify it. For now, though, we will side-step those very important questions, and assume that, happiness is a thing, and our measure of happiness measures something about how happy people are.
OK then, after we have measured some happiness, I bet you can think of some more pressing questions. For example, what causes happiness to go up or down. If you knew the causes of happiness what could you do? How about increase your own happiness; or, help people who are unhappy; or, better appreciate why Eeyore from Winnie the Pooh is unhappy; or, present valid scientific arguments that argue against incorrect claims about what causes happiness. A causal theory and understanding of happiness could be used for all of those things. How can we get there?
Imagine you were an alien observer. You arrived on earth and heard about this thing called happiness that people have. You want to know what causes happiness. You also discover that planet earth has lots of other things. Which of those things, you wonder, cause happiness? How would your alien-self get started on this big question.
As a person who has happiness, you might already have some hunches about what causes changes in happiness. For example things like: weather, friends, music, money, education, drugs, books, movies, beliefs, personality, color of your shoes, eyebrow length, number of cat’s you see per day, frequency of subway delay, a lifetime supply of chocolate, etcetera etcetera (as Willy Wonka would say), might all contribute to happiness in someway. There could be many different causes of happiness.