3: Probability Topics

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Probability theory is concerned with probability, the analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either be single occurrences or evolve over time in an apparently random fashion.

• 3.1: Introduction
You have, more than likely, used probability. In fact, you probably have an intuitive sense of probability. Probability deals with the chance of an event occurring. Whenever you weigh the odds of whether or not to do your homework or to study for an exam, you are using probability. In this chapter, you will learn how to solve probability problems using a systematic approach.
• 3.2: Terminology
In this module we learned the basic terminology of probability. The set of all possible outcomes of an experiment is called the sample space. Events are subsets of the sample space, and they are assigned a probability that is a number between zero and one, inclusive.
• 3.3: Independent and Mutually Exclusive Events
Two events A and B are independent if the knowledge that one occurred does not affect the chance the other occurs. If they are not independent, then they are dependent. In sampling with replacement, with selecting each member with the possibility of being chosen more than once, and the events are considered to be independent. In sampling without replacement, each member may be chosen only once, and the events are considered not to be independent. When events do not share outcomes, they are mutu
• 3.4: Two Basic Rules of Probability
The multiplication rule and the addition rule are used for computing the probability of A and B, and the probability of A or B for two given events A, B. In sampling with replacement each member has the possibility of being chosen more than once, and the events are considered to be independent. In sampling without replacement, each member may be chosen only once, and the events are not independent. The events A and B are mutually exclusive events when they have no common outcomes.
• 3.5: Contingency Tables
There are several tools you can use to help organize and sort data when calculating probabilities. Contingency tables help display data and are particularly useful when calculating probabilites that have multiple dependent variables.
• 3.6: Tree and Venn Diagrams
A tree diagram use branches to show the different outcomes of experiments and makes complex probability questions easy to visualize. A Venn diagram is a picture that represents the outcomes of an experiment. It generally consists of a box that represents the sample space S together with circles or ovals. The circles or ovals represent events. A Venn diagram is especially helpful for visualizing the OR event, the AND event, and the complement of an event and for understanding conditional probabi
• 3.7: Probability Topics (Worksheet)
The student will use theoretical and empirical methods to estimate probabilities. The student will appraise the differences between the two estimates. The student will demonstrate an understanding of long-term relative frequencies.
• 3.8: Probability Topics (Exericses)
These are homework exercises to accompany the Textmap created for "Introductory Statistics" by OpenStax.