# 17.2: Properties and Constructions


## Basic Theory

### Preliminaries

As in the Introduction, we start with a stochastic process $$\bs{X} = \{X_t: t \in T\}$$ on an underlying probability space $$(\Omega, \mathscr{F}, \P)$$, having state space $$\R$$, and where the index set $$T$$ (representing time) is either $$\N$$ (discrete time) or $$[0, \infty)$$ (continuous time). Next, we have a filtration $$\mathfrak{F} = \{\mathscr{F}_t: t \in T\}$$, and we assume that $$\bs{X}$$ is adapted to $$\mathfrak{F}$$. So $$\mathfrak{F}$$ is an increasing family of sub $$\sigma$$-algebras of $$\mathscr{F}$$ and $$X_t$$ is measurable with respect to $$\mathscr{F}_t$$ for $$t \in T$$. We think of $$\mathscr{F}_t$$ as the collection of events up to time $$t \in T$$. We assume that $$\E\left(\left|X_t\right|\right) \lt \infty$$, so that the mean of $$X_t$$ exists as a real number, for each $$t \in T$$. Finally, in continuous time where $$T = [0, \infty)$$, we make the standard assumptions that $$\bs X$$ is right continuous and has left limits, and that the filtration $$\mathfrak F$$ is right continuous and complete. Please recall the following from the Introduction:

Definitions

1. $$\bs X$$ is a martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ if $$\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) = X_s$$ for all $$s, \, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$.
2. $$\bs X$$ is a sub-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ if $$\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) \ge X_s$$ for all $$s, \, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$.
3. $$\bs X$$ is a super-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ if $$\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) \le X_s$$ for all $$s, \, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$.

Our goal in this section is to give a number of basic properties of martingales and to give ways of constructing martingales from other types of processes. The deeper, fundamental theorems will be studied in the following sections.

### Basic Properties

Our first result is that the martingale property is preserved under a coarser filtration.

Suppose that the process $$\bs X$$ and the filtration $$\mathfrak F$$ satisfy the basic assumptions above and that $$\mathfrak G$$ is a filtration coarser than $$\mathfrak F$$ so that $$\mathscr{G}_t \subseteq \mathscr{F}_t$$ for $$t \in T$$. If $$\bs X$$ is a martingale (sub-martingale, super-martingale) with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ and $$\bs X$$ is adapted to $$\mathfrak G$$ then $$\bs X$$ is a martingale (sub-martingale, super-martingale) with respect to $$\mathfrak G$$.

Proof

Suppose that $$s, \, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$. The proof uses the tower and increasing properties of conditional expected value, and the fact that $$\bs X$$ is adapted to $$\mathfrak G$$

1. If $$\bs X$$ is a martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{G}_s) = \E\left[\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) \mid \mathscr{G}_s\right] = \E(X_s \mid \mathscr{G}_s) = X_s$
2. If $$\bs X$$ is a sub-martinagle with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{G}_s) = \E\left[\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) \mid \mathscr{G}_s\right] \ge \E(X_s \mid \mathscr{G}_s) = X_s$
3. If $$\bs X$$ is a super-martinagle with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{G}_s) = \E\left[\E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) \mid \mathscr{G}_s\right] \le \E(X_s \mid \mathscr{G}_s) = X_s$

In particular, if $$\bs{X}$$ is a martingale (sub-martingale, super-martingale) with respect to some filtration, then it is a martingale (sub-martingale, super-martingale) with respect to its own natural filtration.

The relations that define martingales, sub-martingales, and super-martingales hold for the ordinary (unconditional) expected values. We had this result in the last section, but it's worth repeating.

Suppose that $$s, \, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$.

1. If $$\bs{X}$$ is a martingale with respect to $$\frak{F}$$ then $$\E(X_s) = \E(X_t)$$.
2. If $$\bs{X}$$ is a sub-martingale with respect to $$\frak{F}$$ then $$\E(X_s) \le \E(X_t)$$.
3. If $$\bs{X}$$ is a super-martingale with respect to $$\frak{F}$$ then $$\E(X_s) \ge \E(X_t)$$.
Proof

The results follow directly from the definitions, and the critical fact that $$\E\left[\E\left(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s\right)\right] = \E(X_t)$$ for $$s, \, t \in T$$.

So if $$\bs X$$ is a martingale then $$\bs X$$ has constant expected value, and this value is referred to as the mean of $$\bs X$$. The martingale properties are preserved under sums of the stochastic processes.

For the processes $$\bs{X} = \{X_t: t \in T\}$$ and $$\bs{Y} = \{Y_t: t \in T\}$$, let $$\bs{X} + \bs{Y} = \{X_t + Y_t: t \in T\}$$. If $$\bs X$$ and $$\bs Y$$ are martingales (sub-martingales, super-martinagles) with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $$\bs X + \bs Y$$ is a martingale (sub-martingale, super-martinagle) with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$.

Proof

The results follow easily from basic properties of expected value and conditional expected value. First note that $$\E\left(\left|X_t + Y_t\right|\right) \le \E\left(\left|X_t\right|\right) + \E\left(\left|Y_t\right|\right) \lt \infty$$ for $$t \in T$$. Next $$\E(X_t + Y_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) = \E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) + \E(Y_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s)$$ for $$s, \, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$.

The sub-martingale and super-martingale properties are preserved under multiplication by a positive constant and are reversed under multiplication by a negative constant.

For the process $$\bs{X} = \{X_t: t \in T\}$$ and the constant $$c \in \R$$, let $$c \bs{X} = \{c X_t: t \in T\}$$.

1. If $$\bs X$$ is a martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $$c \bs X$$ is also a martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$
2. If $$\bs X$$ is a sub-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$, then $$c \bs X$$ is a sub-martingale if $$c \gt 0$$, a super-martingale if $$c \lt 0$$, and a martingale if $$c = 0$$.
3. If $$\bs X$$ is a super-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$, then $$c \bs X$$ is a super-martingale if $$c \gt 0$$, a sub-martingale if $$c \lt 0$$, and a martingale if $$c = 0$$.
Proof

The results follow easily from basic properties of expected value and conditional expected value. First note that $$\E\left(\left|c X_t \right|\right) = |c| \E\left(\left|X_t\right|\right) \lt \infty$$ for $$t \in T$$. Next $$\E(c X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s) = c \E(X_t \mid \mathscr{F}_s)$$ for $$s, \, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$.

Property (a), together with the previous additive property, means that the collection of martingales with respect to a fixed filtration $$\mathfrak F$$ forms a vector space. Here is a class of transformations that turns martingales into sub-martingales.

Suppose that $$\bs X$$ takes values in an interval $$S \subseteq \R$$ and that $$g: S \to \R$$ is convex with $$\E\left[\left|g(X_t)\right|\right] \lt \infty$$ for $$t \in T$$. If either of the following conditions holds then $$g(\bs X) = \{g(X_t): t \in T\}$$ is a sub-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$:

1. $$\bs X$$ is a martingale.
2. $$\bs X$$ is a sub-martingale and $$g$$ is also increasing.
Proof

Here is the most important special case of the previous result:

Suppose again that $$\bs X$$ is a martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$. Let $$k \in [1, \infty)$$ and suppose that $$\E\left(|X_t|^k\right) \lt \infty$$ for $$t \in T$$. Then the process $$|\bs X|^k = \left\{\left|X_t\right|^k: t \in T\right\}$$ is a sub-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$

Proof

In particular, if $$\bs X$$ is a martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $$|\bs X| = \{|X_t|: t \in T\}$$ is a sub-martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$. Here is a related result that we will need later. First recall that the positive and negative parts of $$x \in \R$$ are $$x^+ = \max\{x, 0\}$$ and $$x^- = \max\{-x, 0\}$$, so that $$x^+ \ge 0$$, $$x^- \ge 0$$, $$x = x^+ - x^-$$, and $$|x| = x^+ + x^-$$.

If $$\bs X = \{X_t: t \in T\}$$ is a sub-martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_t: t \in T\}$$ then $$\bs{X}^+ = \{X_t^+: t \in T\}$$ is also a sub-martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$.

Proof

As shown in the graph above, the function $$x \mapsto x^+$$ is increasing and convex on $$\R$$.

Our last result of this discussion is that if we sample a continuous-time martingale at an increasing sequence of time points, we get a discrete-time martingale.

Suppose again that the process $$\bs X = \{X_t: t \in [0, \infty)\}$$ and the filtration $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_t: t \in [0, \infty)\}$$ satisfy the basic assumptions above. Suppose also that $$\{t_n: n \in \N\} \subset [0, \infty)$$ is a strictly increasing sequence of time points with $$t_0 = 0$$, and define $$Y_n = X_{t_n}$$ and $$\mathscr{G}_n = \mathscr{F}_{t_n}$$ for $$n \in \N$$. If $$\bs X$$ is a martingale (sub-martingale, super-martingale) with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $$\bs Y = \{Y_n: n \in \N\}$$ is a martingale (sub-martingale, super-martingale) with respect to $$\mathfrak G$$.

Proof

Since the time points are increasing, it's clear that $$\mathfrak G$$ is a discrete-time filtration. Next, $$\E(|Y_n|) = \E\left(\left|X_{t_n}\right|\right) \lt \infty$$. Finally, suppose that $$\bs X$$ is a martingale and $$n, \, k \in \N$$ with $$k \lt n$$. Then $$t_k \lt t_n$$ so $\E(Y_n \mid \mathscr{G}_k) = \E\left(X_{t_n} \mid \mathscr{F}_{t_k}\right) = X_{t_k} = Y_k$ Hence $$\bs Y$$ is also a martingale. The proofs for sub and super-martingales are similar, but with inequalities replacing the second equality.

This result is often useful for extending proofs of theorems in discrete time to continuous time.

### The Martingale Transform

Our next discussion, in discrete time, shows how to build a new martingale from an existing martingale and an predictable process. This construction turns out to be very useful, and has an interesting gambling interpretation. To review the definition, recall that $$\{Y_n: n \in \N_+\}$$ is predictable relative to the filtration $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_n: n \in \N\}$$ if $$Y_n$$ is measurable with respect to $$\mathscr{F}_{n-1}$$ for $$n \in \N_+$$. Think of $$Y_n$$ as the bet that a gambler makes on game $$n \in \N_+$$. The gambler can base the bet on all of the information she has at that point, including the outcomes of the previous $$n - 1$$ games. That is, she can base the bet on the information encoded in $$\mathscr{F}_{n-1}$$.

Suppose that $$\bs X = \{X_n: n \in \N\}$$ is adapted to the filtration $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_n: n \in \N\}$$ and that $$\bs Y = \{Y_n: n \in \N_+\}$$ is predictable relative to $$\mathfrak F$$. The transform of $$\bs X$$ by $$\bs Y$$ is the process $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ defined by $(\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_n = X_0 + \sum_{k=1}^n Y_k (X_k - X_{k-1}), \quad n \in \N$

The motivating example behind the transfrom, in terms of a gambler making a sequence of bets, is given in an example below. Note that $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ is also adapted to $$\mathfrak F$$. Note also that the transform depends on $$\bs X$$ only through $$X_0$$ and $$\{X_n - X_{n-1}: n \in \N_+\}$$. If $$\bs X$$ is a martingale, this sequence is the martingale difference sequence studied Introduction.

Suppose $$\bs X = \{X_n: n \in \N\}$$ is adapted to the filtration $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_n: n \in \N\}$$ and that $$\bs{Y} = \{Y_n: n \in \N\}$$ is a bounded process, predictable relative to $$\mathfrak{F}$$.

1. If $$\bs X$$ is a martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ is also a martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$.
2. If $$\bs X$$ is a sub-martingle relative to $$\mathfrak F$$ and $$\bs Y$$ is nonnegative, then $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ is also a sub-martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$.
3. If $$\bs X$$ is a super-martingle relative to $$\mathfrak F$$ and $$\bs Y$$ is nonnegative, then $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ is also a super-martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$.
Proof

Suppose that $$|Y_n| \le c$$ for $$n \in \N$$ where $$c \in (0, \infty)$$. Then $\E(|(\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_n|) \le \E(|X_0|) + c \sum_{k=1}^n [\E(|X_k|) + \E(|X_{k-1}|)] \lt \infty, \quad n \in \N$ Next, for $$n \in \N$$, \begin{align*} \E\left[(\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_{n+1} \mid \mathscr{F}_n\right] &= \E\left[(\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_n + Y_{n+1} (X_{n+1} - X_n) \mid \mathscr{F}_n\right] = (\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_n + Y_{n+1} \E\left(X_{n+1} - X_n \mid \mathscr{F}_n\right)\\ & = (\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_n + Y_{n+1} [\E(X_{n+1} \mid \mathscr{F}_n) - X_n] \end{align*} since $$(\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_n$$, $$Y_{n+1}$$ and $$X_n$$ are $$\mathscr{F}_n$$-measurable. The results now follow from the definitions of martingle, sub-martingale, and super-martingale.

This construction is known as a martingale transform, and is a discrete version of the stochastic integral that we will study in the chapter on Brownian motion. The result also holds if instead of $$\bs Y$$ being bounded, we have $$\bs X$$ bounded and $$\E(|Y_n|) \lt \infty$$ for $$n \in \N_+$$

### The Doob Decomposition

The next result, in discrete time, shows how to decompose a basic stochastic process into a martingale and a predictable process. The result is known as the Doob decomposition theorem and is named for Joseph Doob who developed much of the modern theory of martingales.

Suppose that $$\bs X = \{X_n: n \in \N\}$$ satisfies the basic assumptions above relative to the filtration $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_n: n \in \N\}$$. Then $$X_n = Y_n + Z_n$$ for $$n \in \N$$ where $$\bs Y = \{Y_n: n \in \N\}$$ is a martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$ and $$\bs Z = \{Z_n: n \in \N\}$$ is predictable relative to $$\mathfrak F$$. The decomposition is unique.

1. If $$\bs X$$ is a sub-martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $$\bs Z$$ is increasing.
2. If $$\bs X$$ is a super-martingale relative to $$\mathfrak F$$ then $$\bs Z$$ is decreasing.
Proof

Recall that the basic assumptions mean that $$\bs X = \{X_n: n \in \N\}$$ is adapted to $$\mathfrak F$$ and $$\E(|X_n|) \lt \infty$$ for $$n \in \N$$. Define $$Z_0 = 0$$ and $Z_n = \sum_{k=1}^n \left[\E(X_k \mid \mathscr{F}_{k-1}) - X_{k-1}\right], \quad n \in \N_+$ Then $$Z_n$$ is measurable with respect to $$\mathscr{F}_{n-1}$$ for $$n \in \N_+$$ so $$\bs Z$$ is predictable with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$. Now define $Y_n = X_n - Z_n = X_n - \sum_{k=1}^n \left[\E(X_k \mid \mathscr{F}_{k-1}) - X_{k-1}\right], \quad n \in \N$ Then $$\E(|Y_n|) \lt \infty$$ and trivially $$X_n = Y_n + Z_n$$ for $$n \in \N$$. Next, \begin{align*} \E(Y_{n+1} \mid \mathscr{F}_n) & = \E(X_{n+1} \mid \mathscr{F}_n) - Z_{n+1} = \E(X_{n+1} \mid \mathscr{F}_n) - \sum_{k=1}^{n+1} \left[\E(X_k \mid \mathscr{F}_{k-1}) - X_{k-1}\right] \\ & = X_n - \sum_{k=1}^n \left[\E(X_k \mid \mathscr{F}_{k-1}) - X_{k-1}\right] = Y_n, \quad n \in \N \end{align*} Hence $$\bs Y$$ is a martingale. Conversely, suppose that $$\bs X$$ has the decomposition in terms of $$\bs Y$$ and $$\bs Z$$ given in the theorem. Since $$\bs Y$$ is a martingale and $$\bs Z$$ is predictable, \begin{align*} \E(X_n - X_{n-1} \mid \mathscr{F}_{n-1}) & = \E(Y_n \mid \mathscr{F}_{n-1}) - \E(Y_{n-1} \mid \mathscr{F}_{n-1}) + \E(Z_n \mid \mathscr{F}_{n-1}) - \E(Z_{n-1} \mid \mathscr{F}_{n-1}) \\ & = Y_{n-1} - Y_{n-1} + Z_n - Z_{n-1} = Z_n - Z_{n-1}, \quad n \in \N_+ \end{align*} Also $$Z_0 = 0$$ so $$\bs X$$ uniquely determines $$\bs Z$$. But $$Y_n = X_n - Z_n$$ for $$n \in \N$$, so $$\bs X$$ uniquely determines $$\bs Y$$ also.

1. If $$\bs X$$ is a sub-martingale then $$\E(X_n \mid \mathscr{F}_{n-1}) - X_{n-1} \ge 0$$ for $$n \in \N_+$$ so $$\bs Z$$ is increasing.
2. If $$\bs X$$ is a super-martingale then $$\E(X_n \mid \mathscr{F}_{n-1}) - X_{n-1} \le 0$$ for $$n \in \N_+$$ so $$\bs Z$$ is decreasing.

A decomposition of this form is more complicated in continuous time, in part because the definition of a predictable process is more subtle and complex. The decomposition theorem holds in continuous time, with our basic assumptions and the additional assumption that the collection of random variables $$\{X_\tau: \tau \text{ is a finite-valued stopping time}\}$$ is uniformly integrable. The result is known as the Doob-Meyer decomposition theorem, named additionally for Paul Meyer.

### Markov Processes

As you might guess, there are important connections between Markov processes and martingales. Suppose that $$\bs X = \{X_t: t \in T\}$$ is a (homogeneous) Markov process with state space $$(S, \mathscr{S})$$, relative to the filtration $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_t: t \in T\}$$. Let $$\bs P = \{P_t: t \in T\}$$ denote the collection of transition kernesl of $$\bs X$$, so that $P_t(x, A) = \P(X_t \in A \mid X_0 = x), \quad x \in S, A \in \mathscr{S}$ Recall that (like all probability kernels), $$P_t$$ operates (on the right) on (measurable) functions $$h: S \to \R$$ by the rule $P_t h(x) = \int_S P_t(x, dy) h(y) = \E[h(X_t) \mid X_0 = x], \quad x \in S$ assuming as usual that the expected value exists. Here is the critical definition that we will need.

Suppose that $$h: S \to \R$$ and that $$\E[|h(X_t)|] \lt \infty$$ for $$t \in T$$.

1. $$h$$ is harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$P_t h = h$$ for $$t \in T$$.
2. $$h$$ is sub-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$P_t h \ge h$$ for $$t \in T$$.
3. $$h$$ is super-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$P_t h \le h$$ for $$t \in T$$.

The following theorem gives the fundamental connection between the two types of stochastic processes. Given the similarity in the terminology, the result may not be a surprise.

Suppose that $$h: S \to \R$$ and $$\E[\left|h(X_t)\right|] \lt \infty$$ for $$t \in T$$. Define $$h(\bs X) = \{h(X_t): t \in T\}$$.

1. $$h$$ is harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if and only if $$h(\bs X)$$ is a martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$.
2. $$h$$ is sub-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if and only if $$h(\bs X)$$ is a sub-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$.
3. $$h$$ is super-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if and only if $$h(\bs X)$$ is a super-martingale with respect to $$\mathfrak F$$.
Proof

Suppose that $$s,\, t \in T$$ with $$s \le t$$. Then by the Markov property, $\E[h(X_t) \mid \mathscr{F}_s] = \E[h(X_t) \mid X_s] = P_{t-s} h(X_s)$ So if $$h$$ is harmonic, $$\E[h(X_t) \mid \mathscr{F}_s] = h(X_s)$$ so $$\{h(X_t): t \in T\}$$ is a martingale. Conversely, if $$\{h(X_t): t \in T\}$$ is a martingale, then $$P_{t-s}h(X_s) = h(X_s)$$. Letting $$s = 0$$ and $$X_0 = x$$ gives $$P_t h(x) = h(x)$$ so $$h$$ is harmonic. The proofs for sub and super-martingales are similar, with inequalities replacing the equalities.

Several of the examples given in the Introduction can be re-interpreted in the context of harmonic functions of Markov chains. We explore some of these below.

## Examples

Let $$\mathscr{R}$$ denote the usual set of Borel measurable subsets of $$\R$$, and for $$A \in \mathscr{R}$$ and $$x \in \R$$ let $$A - x = \{y - x: y \in A\}$$. Let $$I$$ denote the identity function on $$\R$$, so that $$I(x) = x$$ for $$x \in \R$$. We will need this notation in a couple of our applications below.

### Random Walks

Suppose that $$\bs V = \{V_n: n \in \N\}$$ is a sequence of independent, real-valued random variables, with $$\{V_n: n \in \N_+\}$$ identically distributed and having common probability measure $$Q$$ on $$(\R, \mathscr{R})$$ and mean $$a \in \R$$. Recall from the Introduction that the partial sum process $$\bs X = \{X_n: n \in \N\}$$ associated with $$\bs V$$ is given by $X_n = \sum_{i=0}^n V_i, \quad n \in \N$ and that $$\bs X$$ is a (discrete-time) random walk. But $$\bs X$$ is also a discrete-time Markov process with one-step transition kernel $$P$$ given by $$P(x, A) = Q(A - x)$$ for $$x \in \R$$ and $$A \in \mathscr{R}$$.

The identity function $$I$$ is

1. Harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$a = 0$$.
2. Sub-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$a \ge 0$$.
3. Super-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$a \le 0$$.
Proof

Note that $PI(x) = \E(X_1 \mid X_0 = x) = x + \E(X_1 - X_0 \mid X_0 = x) = x + \E(V_1 \mid X_0 = x) = I(x) + a \$ Since $$V_1$$ and $$X_0 = V_0$$ are independent. The results now follow from the definitions.

It now follows from our theorem above that $$\bs X$$ is a martingale if $$a = 0$$, a sub-martingale if $$a \gt 0$$, and a super-martingale if $$a \lt 0$$. We showed these results directly from the definitions in the Introduction.

### The Simple Random Walk

Suppose now that that $$\bs{V} = \{V_n: n \in \N\}$$ is a sequence of independent random variables with $$\P(V_i = 1) = p$$ and $$\P(V_i = -1) = 1 - p$$ for $$i \in \N_+$$, where $$p \in (0, 1)$$. Let $$\bs{X} = \{X_n: n \in \N\}$$ be the partial sum process associated with $$\bs{V}$$ so that $X_n = \sum_{i=0}^n V_i, \quad n \in \N$ Then $$\bs{X}$$ is the simple random walk with parameter $$p$$. In terms of gambling, our gambler plays a sequence of independent and identical games, and on each game, wins €1 with probability $$p$$ and loses €1 with probability $$1 - p$$. So if $$X_0$$ is the gambler's initial fortune, then $$X_n$$ is her net fortune after $$n$$ games. In the Introduction we showed that $$\bs X$$ is a martingale if $$p = \frac{1}{2}$$, a super-martingale if $$p \lt \frac{1}{2}$$, and a sub-martingale if $$p \gt \frac{1}{2}$$. But suppose now that instead of making constant unit bets, the gambler makes bets that depend on the outcomes of previous games. This leads to a martingale transform as studied above.

Suppose that the gambler bets $$Y_n$$ on game $$n \in \N_+$$ (at even stakes), where $$Y_n \in [0, \infty)$$ depends on $$(V_0, V_1, V_2, \ldots, V_{n-1})$$ and satisfies $$\E(Y_n) \lt \infty$$. So the process $$\bs Y = \{Y_n: n \in \N_+\}$$ is predictable with respect to $$\bs X$$, and the gambler's net winnings after $$n$$ games is $(\bs Y \cdot \bs X)_n = V_0 + \sum_{k=1}^n Y_k V_k = X_0 + \sum_{k=1}^n Y_k (X_k - X_{k-1})$

1. $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ is a sub-martingale if $$p \gt \frac{1}{2}$$.
2. $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ is a super-martingale if $$p \lt \frac{1}{2}$$.
3. $$\bs Y \cdot \bs X$$ is a martingale if $$p = \frac{1}{2}$$.
Proof

These result follow immediately the theorem for martingale transforms above.

The simple random walk $$\bs X$$ is also a discrete-time Markov chain on $$\Z$$ with one-step transition matrix $$P$$ given by $$P(x, x + 1) = p$$, $$P(x, x - 1) = 1 - p$$.

The function $$h$$ given by $$h(x) = \left(\frac{1 - p}{p}\right)^x$$ for $$x \in \Z$$ is harmonic for $$\bs X$$.

Proof

For $$x \in \Z$$, \begin{align*} P h(x) & = p h(x + 1) + (1 - p) h(x - 1) = p \left(\frac{1 - p}{p}\right)^{x+1} + (1 - p) \left(\frac{1 - p}{p}\right)^{x-1} \\ & \frac{(1 - p)^{x + 1}}{p^x} + \frac{(1 - p)^x}{p^{x-1}} = \left(\frac{1 - p}{p}\right)^x [(1 - p) + p] = h(x) \end{align*}

It now follows from our theorem above that the process $$\bs Z = \{Z_n: n \in \N\}$$ given by $$Z_n = \left(\frac{1 - p}{p}\right)^{X_n}$$ for $$n \in \N$$ is a martingale. We showed this directly from the definition in the Introduction. As you may recall, this is De Moivre's martingale and named for Abraham De Moivre.

### Branching Processes

Recall the discussion of the simple branching process from the Introduction. The fundamental assumption is that the particles act independently, each with the same offspring distribution on $$\N$$. As before, we will let $$f$$ denote the (discrete) probability density function of the number of offspring of a particle, $$m$$ the mean of the distribution, and $$\phi$$ the probability generating function of the distribution. We assume that $$f(0) \gt 0$$ and $$f(0) + f(1) \lt 1$$ so that a particle has a positive probability of dying without children and a positive probability of producing more than 1 child. Recall that $$q$$ denotes the probability of extinction, starting with a single particle.

The stochastic process of interest is $$\bs{X} = \{X_n: n \in \N\}$$ where $$X_n$$ is the number of particles in the $$n$$th generation for $$n \in \N$$. Recall that $$\bs{X}$$ is a discrete-time Markov chain on $$\N$$ with one-step transition matrix $$P$$ given by $$P(x, y) = f^{* x}(y)$$ for $$x, \, y \in \N$$ where $$f^{*x}$$ denotes the convolution power of order $$x$$ of $$f$$.

The function $$h$$ given by $$h(x) = q^x$$ for $$x \in \N$$ is harmonic for $$\bs X$$.

Proof

For $$x \in \N$$, $Ph(x) = \sum_{y \in \N} P(x, y) h(y) = \sum_{y \in \N} f^{*x}(y) q^y$ The last expression is the probability generating function of $$f^{*x}$$ evaluated at $$q$$. But this PGF is simply $$\phi^x$$ and $$q$$ is a fixed point of $$\phi$$ so we have $Ph(x) = [\phi(q)]^x = q^x = h(x)$

It now follows from our theorem above that the process $$\bs Z = \{Z_n: n \in \N\}$$ is a martingale where $$Z_n = q^{X_n}$$ for $$n \in \N$$. We showed this directly from the definition in the Introduction. We also showed that the process $$\bs Y = \{Y_n: n \in \N\}$$ is a martingale where $$Y_n = X_n / m^n$$ for $$n \in \N$$. But we can't write $$Y_n = h(X_n)$$ for a function $$h$$ defined on the state space, so we can't interpret this martingale in terms of a harmonic function.

### General Random Walks

Suppose that $$\bs X = \{X_t: t \in T\}$$ is a stochastic process satisfying the basic assumptions above relative to the filtration $$\mathfrak F = \{\mathscr{F}_t: t \in T\}$$. Recall from the Introduction that the term increment refers to a difference of the form $$X_{s+t} - X_s$$ for $$s, \, t \in T$$. The process $$\bs X$$ has independent increments if this increment is always independent of $$\mathscr{F}_s$$, and has stationary increments this increment always has the same distribution as $$X_t - X_0$$. In discrete time, a process with stationary, independent increments is simply a random walk as discussed above. In continuous time, a process with stationary, independent increments (and with the continuity assumptions we have imposed) is called a continuous-time random walk, and also a Lévy process, named for Paul Lévy.

So suppose that $$\bs X$$ has stationary, independent increments. For $$t \in T$$ let $$Q_t$$ denote the probability distribution of $$X_t - X_0$$ on $$(\R, \mathscr{R})$$, so that $$Q_t$$ is also the probability distribution aof $$X_{s+t} - X_s$$ for every $$s, \, t \in T$$. From our previous study, we know that $$\bs X$$ is a Markov processes with transition kernel $$P_t$$ at time $$t \in T$$ given by $P_t(x, A) = Q_t(A - x); \quad x \in \R, A \in \mathscr{R}$ We also know that $$\E(X_t - X_0) = a t$$ for $$t \in T$$ where $$a = \E(X_1 - X_0)$$ (assuming of course that the last expected value exists in $$\R$$).

The identity function $$I$$ is .

1. Harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$a = 0$$.
2. Sub-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$a \ge 0$$.
3. Super-harmonic for $$\bs X$$ if $$a \le 0$$.
Proof

Note that $P_t I(x) = \E(X_t \mid X_0 = x) = x + \E(X_t - X_0 \mid X_0 = x) = I(x) + a t$ since $$X_t - X_0$$ is independent of $$X_0$$. The results now follow from the definitions.

It now follows that $$\bs X$$ is a martingale if $$a = 0$$, a sub-martingale if $$a \ge 0$$, and a super-martingale if $$a \le 0$$. We showed this directly in the Introduction. Recall that in continuous time, the Poisson counting process has stationary, independent increments, as does standard Brownian motion