All we have is the data, and it is from the data that we want to learn the truth about the world. If five cards off the top of the deck are all hearts, how likely is it that the deck was shuffled? - I...All we have is the data, and it is from the data that we want to learn the truth about the world. If five cards off the top of the deck are all hearts, how likely is it that the deck was shuffled? - If the lottery commissioner’s spouse wins the lottery, how likely is it that the lottery was rigged? If the coin is fair, then the model I should adopt is one that says that the probability of heads is 0.5; that is, P(heads)=0.5.
All we have is the data, and it is from the data that we want to learn the truth about the world. And what we want to infer is whether or not we should conclude that what we just saw was actually a fa...All we have is the data, and it is from the data that we want to learn the truth about the world. And what we want to infer is whether or not we should conclude that what we just saw was actually a fair coin being flipped 10 times in a row, or whether we should suspect that a trick is being played on us. If the coin is fair, then the model we should adopt is one that says that the probability of heads is 0.5; that is, P(heads)=0.5.
