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  • https://stats.libretexts.org/Courses/Fullerton_College/Math_100%3A_Liberal_Arts_Math_(Ikeda)/06%3A_Probability/6.04%3A_Bayes_Theorem
    The test does not produce false negatives (that is, anyone who has the disease will test positive for it), but the false positive rate is 5% (that is, about 5% of people who take the test will test po...The test does not produce false negatives (that is, anyone who has the disease will test positive for it), but the false positive rate is 5% (that is, about 5% of people who take the test will test positive, even though they do not have the disease). We could redo the problem with 100,000 test subjects, 100 of whom would have the disease and \((0.05)(99,900)=4995\) test positive but do not have the disease, so the exact probability of having the disease if you test positive is

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